If you’re like me, sometimes random thoughts will pop into your head that grab your attention and just won’t go away. But, it’s an idea that requires a little bit of leg work to fully flesh out. You can’t help but think about it, but you never really feel like doing the research necessary to satiate your curiosity.
That’s exactly what happened after I discovered Jordan Addison – who was drafted to the Minnesota Vikings as Justin Jefferson’s new running mate this year – was a Fred Biletnikoff Award winner. For those that don’t track college football nearly as much as the NFL (like me), the Fred Biletnikoff Award is awarded to the nation’s best wide receiver each year.
When I found that out, his fantasy stock immediately rose in my mind; for redraft leagues this year, and especially for dynasty leagues. But it also sparked that random thought: “How successful are Biletnikoff Award winners in fantasy?”
Instead of letting the idea fester in perpetual curiosity, I decided to find out for myself this time.
As you can see, a couple of absolute studs jump out at you: Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson. Two Hall of Fame-caliber players obviously would also be highly relevant in fantasy football.
Even outside those two, Biletnikoff Award winners have a pretty decent track record overall. Arguably eight out of the nineteen winners since 2000 (roughly 42%) have been fantasy relevant (WR3/Top 30 or better in a ten team league) on a fairly consistent basis. If we look at the stretch between 2003 and 2014, that number improves to 6 out of 12 (50%); 7 out of 12 (58%) if you consider Braylon Edwards as consistently fantasy relevant. An impressive hit rate, considering the crapshoot the NFL draft can be.
The golden fantasy years appears to generally be from a player’s Year 3 to Year 8. Of the eight players that could safely be considered consistently fantasy relevant, six of them played at least eight years. The other two – Ja’Marr Chase and DeVonta Smith – have only played 2 years so far.
Here’s each player’s fantasy-relevant average end of year ranking – with the number of years that player was not fantasy relevant in parentheses – during those six “golden years.” Rankings listed from top to bottom in the spreadsheet: WR 9.0 (0), WR 8.5 (0), WR 17.5 (2), WR 18.6 (1), WR 15 (1), and WR 16.2 (1).
Concerning Jordan Addison and his prospective outlook in fantasy, we can take a look at the three most recent award winners: Jerry Jeudy, Ja’Marr Chase, and DeVonta Smith. With Sean Payton taking over play calling in Denver, Jeudy very easily could continue to partake in the “golden years” trend of past Biletnikoff Award winners. Chase is 1B to Justin Jefferson’s 1A of young receiver rankings. And Smith exploded in year two with the addition of AJ Brown to his team. A similar situation that Addison finds himself in playing alongside Jefferson.
In other words, my instinct to raise Addison’s fantasy stock is backed by facts, and no longer just my gut.
But what about the other skill position awards for running back and tight end? Obviously now I had to find that out too.
Below are how Doak Walker Award winners – college’s best running back – have fared in fantasy.
First off, look at LT. Wow. Just, wow.
Unfortunately, outside of Reggie Bush and a couple outstanding seasons from Larry Johnson, there isn’t nearly as much consistent fantasy success from Doak Walker Award winners as there were for Biletnikoff Award winners.
However, we may see a bit of a shift starting with the 2014 award winner. Four of the seven most recent winners were RB1s for multiple seasons, with Kenneth Walker III coming off a huge rookie season. And of course, Bijan Robinson is widely regarded as a generational talent among NFL experts. Combined with Arthur Smith’s prevalence to lean heavily on the run game, there’s no doubt that Robinson is considered an RB1 leading into the 2023 season.
It’s still too early to call, but all four of the most recent Doak Award winners have the potential to shift the narrative around future Doak Award winner’s prospective success in fantasy.
Below are how John Mackey Award winners – college’s best tight end – have fared in fantasy.
When you’re looking at how tight ends have fared, our definition of “fantasy relevant” has to change, since most standard leagues only have one TE slot. So only the greens and blue above are fantasy relevant season.
With that change of perspective in mind…yikes.
Between the 2005 and 2014 award winners, only two players had multiple fantasy relevant seasons. Of those two, only one of them had back-to-back fantasy relevant seasons. And that player was out of the league by Year 4 for egregious non-football reasons.
Similar to running backs though, we may see a shift in narrative starting with the 2015 award winner. Half of the past six winners have had three year streaks of fantasy relevant seasons. Something that hadn’t occurred since the 2004 award winner.
With that in mind, Trey McBride is a personal sleeper pick for the upcoming 2023 season. Granted, quarterback play is a huge question mark in Arizona with Kyler Murray recovering from a significant injury. But with DeAndre Hopkins gone, and Zach Ertz also recovering from a significant injury, someone has to catch passes. And as a John Mackey Award winner, we know he has the requisite skillset to succeed.
Hopefully you can use this information to inform your draft decisions not only this year, but in future drafts. Or at least, it helped scratch an itch you may have had on this topic like it did for me.
All stats/rankings via FantasyData.com.
